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Predicting the Likelihood of Future Sexual Recidivism: Pilot Study Findings From a California Sex Offender Risk Project and Cross-Validation of the Static-99

Dr. Sreenivasan and Dr. Weinberger are Clinical Professors of Psychiatry and the Behavioral Sciences, Keck School of Medicine, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA. Dr. Garrick is Professor of Psychiatry, Geffen School of Medicine, University of California, Los Angeles, CA. Dr. Norris is Chief Psychologist, California Institution for Men, California Department of Corrections and Rehabilitation (CDCR), Chino, CA. Dr. Cusworth-Walker is a Research Associate, University of Washington School of Medicine, Seattle, WA. Dr. Essres is Senior Psychologist, California Men's Colony, CDCR, San Luis Obispo, CA. Dr. Turner is Professor of Criminology, Law, and Society, University of California, Irvine, CA. Mr. Fain is Project Associate, Public Safety and Justice, RAND Corporation, Santa Monica, CA. Address correspondence to: Shoba Sreenivasan, PhD, GLA-VA Medical Center, 11301 Wilshire Blvd., Mental Health Administration, Mail code 691-B116AC, Los Angeles, CA 90073. E-mail: shoba.sreenivasan{at}med.va.gov

Pilot findings on 137 California sex offenders followed up over 10 years after release from custody (excluding cases in which legal jurisdiction expired) are presented. The sexual recidivism rate, very likely inflated by sample selection, was 31 percent at five years and 40 percent at 10 years. Cumulatively, markers of sexual deviance (multiple victim types) and criminality (prior parole violations and prison terms) led to improved prediction of sexual recidivism (receiver operating characteristic [ROC] = .71, r = .46) than singly (multiple victim types: ROC = .60, r = .31; prior parole violations and prison terms: ROC = .66, r = .37). Long-term Static-99 statistical predictive accuracy for sexual recidivism was lower in our sample (ROC = .62, r =.24) than the values presented in the developmental norms. Sexual recidivism rates were higher in our study for Static-99 scores of 2 and 3 than in the developmental sample, and lower for scores of 4 and 6. Given failures to replicate developmental norms, the Static-99 method of ranking sexual recidivism risk warrants caution when applied to individual offenders.

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